Bold Prediction: Where would be the most possible place for World War 3 to start?
79 years has passed since the ending of World War 2 on September 2nd, 1945. During this long period of seemingly peaceful time, many regional power struggles have intensified.
There's a hypothesis saying that the global conflict that could involve most of the world's superpowers and nuclear weapons and lead to World War 3. The possibility of such a war has been a source of fear and speculation for decades, especially during the Cold War era. However, in recent times, some events have raised the alarm of a potential escalation into a third world war.
One of the most obvious triggers for World War 3 is the ongoing war in Ukraine, where Russian forces have invaded and occupied parts of the country since January 2023. The war has caused global ripples, raising the stakes of disputes that have smoldered for decades.
These five simmering disputes pose the greatest risk of erupting into "World War 3" in 2023:
The Ukrainian conflict
Both the previous world wars that took place involved Russia as one of the major powers. The current war in Ukraine is not only a threat to the sovereignty and stability of the country, but also to the security and unity of Europe and NATO. If Russia continues to advance towards Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, or if it accidentally or intentionally strikes a NATO member country, such as Poland, Romania, Hungary or Slovakia, it could trigger Article 5 of the Western treaty, which would necessarily provoke a military response from the U.S. and its allies . This could lead to a conventional or even a nuclear war between Russia and NATO, involving most of the world's superpowers.
The Taiwan Strait
Taiwan is a self-governing island that China considers as a renegade province that must be reunited with the mainland by force if necessary. The U.S. and other countries have supported Taiwan's democracy and autonomy, but have not formally recognized it as an independent state. China has repeatedly warned that any attempt by Taiwan to declare independence or any foreign interference in its affairs would cross a red line and result in a military intervention. The tension between China and Taiwan has increased in recent years, as China has stepped up its military exercises and incursions into Taiwan's airspace and waters. The U.S. has also increased its arms sales and diplomatic contacts with Taiwan, while sending warships and planes to patrol the region. A miscalculation or a provocation by either side could spark a conflict that could draw in other regional powers, such as Japan, South Korea, Australia and India, as well as the U.S. and its allies.
The Korean Peninsula
North Korea is a rogue state that possesses nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles that can reach Japan, South Korea and even parts of the U.S. The country is ruled by Kim Jong-un, a dictator who has shown little regard for human rights or international norms. North Korea has repeatedly tested its nuclear and missile capabilities, defying sanctions and warnings from the international community. The U.S. and South Korea have maintained a military alliance and a deterrence posture against North Korea, while also pursuing diplomatic engagement and dialogue. However, the talks have stalled and the situation remains volatile. A breakdown of communication or a miscalculation by either side could trigger a war that could escalate into a nuclear exchange.
The Middle East
The Middle East is a region that has been plagued by conflicts for decades, involving various actors and interests. Some of the main sources of tension include: Iran's nuclear program and its support for proxy groups in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and elsewhere; Israel's security concerns and its occupation of Palestinian territories; Saudi Arabia's rivalry with Iran and its involvement in Yemen; Turkey's ambitions and interventions in Syria, Iraq and Libya; Syria's civil war and humanitarian crisis; Iraq's instability and sectarian violence; Lebanon's political and economic collapse; Yemen's humanitarian disaster; Libya's chaos and fragmentation; Egypt's authoritarianism and repression; Afghanistan's turmoil and Taliban takeover; among others. Any of these conflicts could escalate or spill over into neighboring countries or regions, creating a domino effect that could involve regional or global powers.
The Indo-Pacific
The Indo-Pacific region is a strategic hotspot that could trigger a global conflict. It is where the interests and ambitions of several major powers collide, such as China, the US, India, Japan and Australia. The disputes over trade, territory, resources and influence in this region could escalate into a full-scale war that would involve many other countries and regions.
The Indo-Pacific region is widely regarded as a potential flashpoint for a major conflict in the 21st century. The region encompasses several countries with competing interests, territorial disputes, nuclear capabilities, and strategic alliances. Some of the key factors that could trigger a war in the Indo-Pacific are:
- The rise of China and its assertive behavior in the South China Sea and the East China Sea, where it claims sovereignty over islands and waters that are also claimed by other countries such as Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, Taiwan, and Japan.
- The US-led Quad alliance of Australia, India, Japan, and the US, which aims to counter China's influence and uphold a free and open Indo-Pacific. The Quad has conducted joint military exercises and diplomatic initiatives to strengthen their cooperation and deterrence against China.
- The nuclear rivalry between India and Pakistan, which have fought several wars over the disputed Kashmir region and have exchanged threats of nuclear attacks. Both countries are also involved in proxy conflicts in Afghanistan and have divergent views on the role of China and the US in the region.
- The North Korean nuclear crisis, which poses a threat to regional stability and security. North Korea has conducted several nuclear tests and ballistic missile launches, defying international sanctions and provoking strong reactions from the US, South Korea, Japan, and China. The US has maintained a policy of maximum pressure and diplomacy to denuclearize North Korea, while China has advocated for dialogue and engagement.
